Using machine learning to predict antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in solid organ transplant recipients: the multicentre ORCHESTRA cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The study aim was to assess predictors of negative antibody response (AbR) in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients after the first booster of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. METHODS: Solid organ transplant recipients receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccination were prospectively enrolled (March 2021-January 2022) at six hospitals in Italy and Spain. AbR was assessed at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), 3 ± 1 month (t2), and 1 month after third dose (t3). Negative AbR at t3 was defined as an anti-receptor binding domain titre <45 BAU/mL. Machine learning models were developed to predict the individual risk of negative (vs. positive) AbR using age, type of transplant, time between transplant and vaccination, immunosuppressive drugs, type of vaccine, and graft function as covariates, subsequently assessed using a validation cohort. RESULTS: Overall, 1615 SOT recipients (1072 [66.3%] males; mean age±standard deviation [SD], 57.85 ± 13.77) were enrolled, and 1211 received three vaccination doses. Negative AbR rate decreased from 93.66% (886/946) to 21.90% (202/923) from t0 to t3. Univariate analysis showed that older patients (mean age, 60.21 ± 11.51 vs. 58.11 ± 13.08), anti-metabolites (57.9% vs. 35.1%), steroids (52.9% vs. 38.5%), recent transplantation (<3 years) (17.8% vs. 2.3%), and kidney, heart, or lung compared with liver transplantation (25%, 31.8%, 30.4% vs. 5.5%) had a higher likelihood of negative AbR. Machine learning (ML) algorithms showing best prediction performance were logistic regression (precision-recall curve-PRAUC mean 0.37 [95%CI 0.36-0.39]) and k-Nearest Neighbours (PRAUC 0.36 [0.35-0.37]). DISCUSSION: Almost a quarter of SOT recipients showed negative AbR after first booster dosage. Unfortunately, clinical information cannot efficiently predict negative AbR even with ML algorithms.

Predictors of clinical evolution of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hematological patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Main aim of this systematic review is to quantify the risk and identify predictors of clinical evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in hematological patients compared to different control populations. Two independent reviewers screened the literature assessing clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adult patients with active hematological malignancies published up to June 2021. Primary outcome was COVID-19 related mortality, secondary outcomes were hospital and intensive-care admission, mechanical ventilation (MV), and thromboembolic events. Variables related to study setting, baseline patients' demographic, comorbidities, underlying hematological disease, ongoing chemotherapy, COVID-19 presentation, and treatments were extracted. A total of 67 studies including 10,061 hematological patients and 111,143 controls were included. Most of the studies were retrospective cohorts (51 studies, 76%) and only 19 (13%) provided data for a control group. A significant increased risk of clinical progression in the hematological population compared to the controls was found in terms of COVID-19 related mortality (OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.77-2.54), hospitalization (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.15-3.43), intensive-care admission (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.38-2.26), and MV (OR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.71-2.75). The risk remained significantly higher in the subgroup analysis comparing hematological patients versus solid cancer. Meta-regression analysis of uncontrolled studies showed that older age, male sex, and hypertension were significantly related to worse clinical outcomes of COVID-19 in hematological population. Older age and hypertension were found to be associated also to thromboembolic events. In conclusion, hematological patients have a higher risk of COVID-19 clinical progression compared to both the general population and to patients with solid cancer.

Association of Patients' Epidemiological Characteristics and Comorbidities with Severity and Related Mortality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Results of an Umbrella Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

The objective of this study was to assess the association between patients' epidemiological characteristics and comorbidities with SARS-CoV-2 infection severity and related mortality risk. An umbrella systematic review, including a meta-analysis examining the association between patients' underlying conditions and severity (defined as need for hospitalization) and mortality of COVID-19, was performed. Studies were included if they reported pooled risk estimates of at least three underlying determinants for hospitalization, critical disease (ICU admission, mechanical ventilation), and hospital mortality in patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Evidence was summarized as pooled odds ratios (pOR) for disease outcomes with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Sixteen systematic reviews investigating the possible associations of comorbidities with severity or death from COVID-19 disease were included. Hospitalization was associated with age > 60 years (pOR 3.50; 95% CI 2.97-4.36), smoking habit (pOR 3.50; 95% CI 2.97-4.36), and chronic pulmonary disease (pOR 2.94; 95% CI 2.14-4.04). Chronic pulmonary disease (pOR 2.82; 95% CI 1.92-4.14), cerebrovascular disease (pOR 2.74; 95% CI 1.59-4.74), and cardiovascular disease (pOR 2.44; 95% CI 1.97-3.01) were likely to be associated with increased risk of critical COVID-19. The highest risk of mortality was associated with cardiovascular disease (pOR 3.59; 95% CI 2.83-4.56), cerebrovascular disease (pOR 3.11; 95% CI 2.35-4.11), and chronic renal disease (pOR 3.02; 95% CI 2.61-3.49). In conclusion, this umbrella systematic review provides a comprehensive summary of meta-analyses examining the impact of patients' characteristics on COVID-19 outcomes. Elderly patients and those cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and chronic renal disease should be prioritized for pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis and early treatment.

Clinical, laboratory data and inflammatory biomarkers at baseline as early discharge predictors in hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 infected patients.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has overwhelmed hospital services due to the rapid transmission of the virus and its severity in a high percentage of cases. Having tools to predict which patients can be safely early discharged would help to improve this situation. METHODS: Patients confirmed as SARS-CoV-2 infection from four Spanish hospitals. Clinical, demographic, laboratory data and plasma samples were collected at admission. The patients were classified into mild and severe/critical groups according to 4-point ordinal categories based on oxygen therapy requirements. Logistic regression models were performed in mild patients with only clinical and routine laboratory parameters and adding plasma pro-inflammatory cytokine levels to predict both early discharge and worsening. RESULTS: 333 patients were included. At admission, 307 patients were classified as mild patients. Age, oxygen saturation, Lactate Dehydrogenase, D-dimers, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and oral corticosteroids treatment were predictors of early discharge (area under curve (AUC), 0.786; sensitivity (SE) 68.5%; specificity (S), 74.5%; positive predictive value (PPV), 74.4%; and negative predictive value (NPV), 68.9%). When cytokines were included, lower interferon-γ-inducible protein 10 and higher Interleukin 1 beta levels were associated with early discharge (AUC, 0.819; SE, 91.7%; S, 56.6%; PPV, 69.3%; and NPV, 86.5%). The model to predict worsening included male sex, oxygen saturation, no corticosteroids treatment, C-reactive protein and Nod-like receptor as independent factors (AUC, 0.903; SE, 97.1%; S, 68.8%; PPV, 30.4%; and NPV, 99.4%). The model was slightly improved by including the determinations of interleukine-8, Macrophage inflammatory protein-1 beta and soluble IL-2Rα (CD25) (AUC, 0.952; SE, 97.1%; S, 98.1%; PPV, 82.7%; and NPV, 99.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical and routine laboratory data at admission strongly predict non-worsening during the first two weeks; therefore, these variables could help identify those patients who do not need a long hospitalization and improve hospital overcrowding. Determination of pro-inflammatory cytokines moderately improves these predictive capacities.

Evaluation of the Kinetics of Antibody Response to COVID-19 Vaccine in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: The Prospective Multicenter ORCHESTRA Cohort.

Previous studies assessing the antibody response (AbR) to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients are limited by short follow-up, hampering the analysis of AbR kinetics. We present the ORCHESTRA SOT recipients cohort assessed for AbR at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), and within 3 ± 1 month (t2) after the first dose. We analyzed 1062 SOT patients (kidney, 63.7%; liver, 17.4%; heart, 16.7%; and lung, 2.5%) and 5045 health care workers (HCWs). The AbR rates in the SOTs and HCWs were 52.3% and 99.4%. The antibody levels were significantly higher in the HCWs than in the SOTs (p < 0.001). The kinetics showed an increase (p < 0.001) in antibody levels up to 76 days and a non-significant decrease after 118 days in the SOT recipients versus a decrease up to 76 days (p = 0.02) and a less pronounced decrease between 76 and 118 days (p = 0.04) in the HCWs. Upon multivariable analysis, liver transplant, ≥3 years from SOT, mRNA-1273, azathioprine, and longer time from t0 were associated with a positive AbR at t2. Older age, other comorbidities, mycophenolate, steroids, and impaired graft function were associated with lower AbR probability. Our results may be useful to optimize strategies of immune monitoring after COVID-19 vaccination and indications regarding timing for booster dosages calibrated on SOT patients' characteristics.

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Severely Immunocompromised Patients With Complete Remission B-Cell Lymphoma and Anti-CD20 Monoclonal Antibody Therapy: A Case Report of Two Cases.

Immunosuppressant conditions such as hematological malignancies increase the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. It has been described in the literature that patients on anti-CD20 maintenance therapies for lymphoid malignancies are susceptible to having recurrent flares together with viral replication or reinfections, although these cases are scarce. These patients are not well represented in randomized controlled trials, and as a consequence, the evidence for the use of certain treatments in this scenario is lacking. We present two cases of patients with B-cell lymphoma on remission and treated with rituximab on maintenance. They developed at least 1 flare of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) after acute infection and always after receiving rituximab. RT-PCR was positive in the nasopharyngeal swab and also in plasma. Patients were treated during flares with remdesivir, hyperimmune plasma, and corticosteroids. These two cases showed the unresolved problem of COVID-19 in immunosuppressant patients and showed that despite the vast amount of information available on SARS-CoV-2, information in this subgroup of patients is lacking.

Clinical outcome in solid organ transplant recipients affected by COVID-19 compared to general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A significant increased risk of complications and mortality in immunocompromised patients affected by COVID-19 has been described. However, the impact of COVID-19 in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients is an issue still under debate, due to conflicting evidence that has emerged from different observational studies. OBJECTIVES: We performed a systematic review with a meta-analysis to assess the clinical outcome in SOT recipients with COVID-19 compared with the general population. DATA SOURCES: PubMed-MEDLINE and Scopus were independently searched until 13 October 2021. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Prospective or retrospective observational studies comparing clinical outcome in SOT recipients versus general populations affected by COVID-19 were included. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were patients with confirmed COVID-19. INTERVENTIONS: Interventions reviewed were SOTs. METHODS: The quality of the included studies was independently assessed with the Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool for observational studies. The meta-analysis was performed by pooling ORs retrieved from studies providing adjustment for confounders using a random-effects model with the inverse variance method. Multiple subgroups and sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the source of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 3501 articles were screened, and 31 observational studies (N = 590 375; 5759 SOT recipients vs. 584 616 general population) were included in the meta-analyses. No difference in 30-day mortality rate was found in the primary analysis, including studies providing adjustment for confounders (N = 17; 3752 SOT recipients vs. 159 745 general population; OR: 1.13; 95% CI, 0.94-1.35; I2 = 33.9%). No evidence of publication bias was reported. A higher risk of intensive care unit admission (OR: 1.56; 95% CI, 1.03-2.63) and occurrence of acute kidney injury (OR: 2.50; 95% CI, 1.81-3.45) was found in SOT recipients. CONCLUSIONS: No increased risk in mortality was found in SOT recipients affected by COVID-19 compared with the general population when adjusted for demographic and clinical features and COVID-19 severity.

Impact of early interferon-ß treatment on the prognosis of patients with COVID-19 in the first wave: A post hoc analysis from a multicenter cohort.

BACKGROUND: Interferon-ß is an attractive drug for repurposing and use in the treatment of COVID-19, based on its in vitro antiviral activity and the encouraging results from clinical trials. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of early interferon-ß treatment in patients admitted with COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS: This post hoc analysis of a COVID-19@Spain multicenter cohort included 3808 consecutive adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from 1 January to 17 March 2020. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality, and the main exposure of interest was subcutaneous administration of interferon-ß, defined as early if started ≤ 3 days from admission. Multivariate logistic and Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify the associations of different variables with receiving early interferon-ß therapy and to assess its impact on 30-day mortality. A propensity score was calculated and used to both control for confounders and perform a matched cohort analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 683 patients (17.9%) received early interferon-ß therapy. These patients were more severely ill. Adjusted HR for mortality with early interferon-ß was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.82-1.30) in the overall cohort, 0.96 (0.82-1.13) in the PS-matched subcohort, and 0.89 (0.60-1.32) when interferon-ß treatment was analyzed as a time-dependent variable. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter cohort of admitted COVID-19 patients, receiving early interferon-ß therapy after hospital admission did not show an association with lower mortality. Whether interferon-ß might be useful in the earlier stages of the disease or specific subgroups of patients requires further research.

Risk factors for unfavorable outcome and impact of early post-transplant infection in solid organ recipients with COVID-19: A prospective multicenter cohort study.

The aim was to analyze the characteristics and predictors of unfavorable outcomes in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) with COVID-19. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of 210 consecutive SOTRs hospitalized with COVID-19 in 12 Spanish centers from 21 February to 6 May 2020. Data pertaining to demographics, chronic underlying diseases, transplantation features, clinical, therapeutics, and complications were collected. The primary endpoint was a composite of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with these unfavorable outcomes. Males accounted for 148 (70.5%) patients, the median age was 63 years, and 189 (90.0%) patients had pneumonia. Common symptoms were fever, cough, gastrointestinal disturbances, and dyspnea. The most used antiviral or host-targeted therapies included hydroxychloroquine 193/200 (96.5%), lopinavir/ritonavir 91/200 (45.5%), and tocilizumab 49/200 (24.5%). Thirty-seven (17.6%) patients required ICU admission, 12 (5.7%) suffered graft dysfunction, and 45 (21.4%) died. A shorter interval between transplantation and COVID-19 diagnosis had a negative impact on clinical prognosis. Four baseline features were identified as independent predictors of intensive care need or death: advanced age, high respiratory rate, lymphopenia, and elevated level of lactate dehydrogenase. In summary, this study presents comprehensive information on characteristics and complications of COVID-19 in hospitalized SOTRs and provides indicators available upon hospital admission for the identification of SOTRs at risk of critical disease or death, underlining the need for stringent preventative measures in the early post-transplant period.